The Fed follows the one year treasury

A Rule That Makes Sense of the Fed

Peter Ireland is attempting to reconstruct this chart as a series of Taylor rule changes, especially the 2018-1019 easing.

This is a case of trying to understand  the one year rate dynamics, because as we see, the simpler rule is that the Fed follows the one year. In this series I see only one period in which the Fed led, just after the crash.

My explanation is consistent with other studies that shows the Fed mostly follows the one year. Does Congress follow the Taylor rule? In other words, is the Taylor rule just the cycle definition of the normal recession cycle? Sure, the Taylor rule simply follows the cycles, the cycles created by the regime change that mostly happens on election cycles.

So, do we vote according to the Taylor rule?  When growth too low to maintain services, we go on a debt binge, as can be seen with the election of Trump. Then we get price distortion and a higher one year, so the Fed raises target to follow, and so on.  John Taylor rule is simply a restatement of the recession cycles. The Taylor rue as a spectral 'pole' right at the frequency of price volatility on government goods. He simply measured government goods depreciation cycle.