Employers capitulate, we get mass layoffs and that is blue bar. His chart indicates that mass layoffs have just begun, just finishing, or in the middle of, if you look at the peak of Menzie's probit model.
How can we get a revision of mass layoffs frm the past? Only if we discover herds of early retirements masking layoffs. In that case, we get a sudden realization that the CBO chart is real, not fake, and rates jump quickly, killing the expansion. This is the likely outcome, and this is a small blue bar, hardly recognizable. It just means a tax and sequester can kick.
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