I do an event study.

Here is my event:

July 30, 2015 - Trump Tops Republican Pack By Wide Margin, Quinnipiac University National Poll Finds; But Dems Trump Trump In General Election




Now one might say that with Trump atop the Repub primary, and Dems running from Obamacare taxes, that a recession cycle almost certainly would start. Run a probit regression (means binary option, let me see:

In statistics, a probit model is a type of regressionwhere the dependent variable can take only two values, for example married or not married. 

Do I have any other examples? Yes, I have five other equal propositions for each of five presidents.  Almost all of them either were in the interest rate cycle, or it soon followed, all except Reagan, who had a recession like right off the bat, the first time we discovered he couldn't add or subtract. So one exception, one president screwed up too early, but the elder Bush made up for it.

Did Trump cause this rate cycle?  No, I doubt it. It was most likely started by Obamacare taxes.  We had the 'Anything is better than this' moment.    What evidence do I have?  Presidents alternate by party. Clear evidence that voters likely get fairly pissed off by the expenses of the previous party.

What about Bubba? His recession got revised away, like ten years after he got blue bar.  Which, I might add, is proof positive that repricings take place, from the past, all the time and cause current costs to change. That is how I know AOC is going to reprice some of the boomer crap we bought over the last 40 years.