The bottom is always the no arbitrage world of trading pits and miner queues, automated congestion management, asynchronous, maximum entropy. Flash loans, Eth chains, proof of stake, short chain cash.
The layer above? Over the counter markets, arbitrage insurance, term contracts, regulations, oracles. This upper layer is real world, people in motion who do not have optimum portfolios. People collide, and often cannot get to market; here is where they insure against collisions. It is Boltzmann himself who gets you back and forth across the boundary.
The lower layer tends to minimize choices in the above layer, it thins the factorial tree by allowing instantaneous profit and loss resolution and that causes early exits from contracts, minimizing the tree.
Assume rate is very large, transaction costs very small. Then the upper layer views the no arbitrage layer as a superposition of states. The insurance is about betting the state transitions. So they bet the estimated depreciation cycles, looking forward. The lower layer just responds to the bets, it has no real concept of future.
This dynamic was at work between flash loans and Oracles. Oracles dealing in a world of OTC, it needs to estimate clearing times on hose external prices. And they take some risk, but collect a fee. They are in competition with the pits and miners; go compete, get your share.
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