The government imbalance is easily predicted

Good enough for government work? Macroeconomics since the crisis

Says Paul in noting the central bank upped then downed, in the proper pro-cyclical sequence with Congress.

The central bank system has it almost to the day, with the ten year hitting 2.66 on the day of shutdown. If the market making residual of the central bank were observable, we would see the periodic blip when the bank sets interest charges for the most recent out of balance government. The bit error has spectral properties, hidden from the system.

Not a problem, we can handle that with auto trading, central banker can still turn the knob in tune with Congress. We get a little monetary competition. but central banking does just fine. 

In the sandbox, our plot is to bet the blip finders, that forensic group within government that locates and recovers the central bank market risk function, blip finders.  These are the folks who draw the blue bars on our graphs.  We want them to inside bet; early and often, hopefully before their forensic investigation is complete. The blips get smoothed, the graphs more interesting.