Tuesday, February 12, 2019

We be QEing soon


A review of the investment portfolio of the $337.2 billion California Public Employees’ Retirement System (CalPERS) says that a “severe and or sustained drawdown” in its global equity portfolio is the biggest risk to the retirement plan.
The review contained in agenda material for the system’s investment committee meeting on February 19 says that over the past 20 years, two such events have occurred: the global financial crisis and the tech crash and recession.
“Such losses today would leave the funded status of the plan below 50%,” the review noted. CalPERS currently has around a 71% funding ratio, below the 80% benchmark that healthy pension plans shoot for.
CalPERS said its model showed if the global financial crisis, which took place from October 2007 to March 2009, occurred today, the pension plan would have a 32% investment loss, resulting in a decline of $107 billion in assets. The funding level for the pension plan would drop to 42%, the simulation shows.
The Fed cannot let the pensions go bust.
 Then we have this:

Now the consumer will delever, and stocks go down, just like last time.  Then we do the California swing, a long period of restructuring in the public sector, with Gavin in charge!

I doubt he knows what to do.

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