Monday, March 4, 2019

The Fed in a box

The Fed needs the Nixonian reform, but we cannot do a midnight default on gold, we have double entry accounting money.  That means Congress needs to authorize a 15 year, 8 Trillion default, and give the Fed power of attorney. But the Fed remains a quasi-state organization, that contract may not be permanent.

JPM is making their own digi-currency, and they are free to use the matching algorithm, computerize currency banking for their premium customers. That be bad news for central bankers.

To compete, he Fed needs default authorization, and more privatization such that it is free of government interference. The meeting of the elders has to happen first. Who will educate the legislators? If the elders screw this up then it is nightmare for millennials, and I hope the millennials are listening well. My four part plan works.

If you want to bet the devaluation, look at long term ten year yield. That curve, from 1972 to now is an impulse response curve, the Shock has worn off, about four years ago, and 2.5% on that curve is top end for sustainability, it the impulse response were frictionless.

The curve is correct, the financial market will bet the binary option, either we do Nixon this cycle, or the next. We are not frictionless.  It is a hard bet to make because my plan is Pareto efficient, it should yield goods news on productivity, and much more accurate accounting going forward. We will know who is melting ice and who is not.

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