Tuesday, July 16, 2019

Low inflation

What causes low inflation, ex post.  Here is the chart of real growth and implicit deflator, they are additive to NGDP.
We had the productivity cycle once, with Bubba in the late 90s. Real growth much higher than inflation.

Before 1981 prices were still chaos from the Nixon Shock. Otherwise, the implicit,  looks to be about the same a real growth, they bounce around each other.  Note real growth has slowed, ex post, bummer. 

We have disinflation because of low growth, we have low growth for other causes of unproductiveness. Anyway, we currently have growth at 2.%, and under inflation at 1.5%. I expect growth to catch down.  Over the indefinite future we are looking at slight deflation. We have to learn about deflationary growth, or go to MMT meetup..

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