If these were normal times, recent global developments would be showing up as sharply rising risk premia. But with monetary policymakers trying to sustain the current growth cycle in the face of disruptions from an incompetent US administration, these are anything but normal times.
I could have predicted this current recession in 1980, ex post, they happen every eight years.
Trump ran on the imbalanced, cyclic economy. All he did was shift stuff around, badly no doubt. Jim O'Neil is a liar or he is incompetent, let him pick his medicine.
This is a larger complaint, partial equilibrium analysis done badly. Economists using part of the spectra to lie about something then the something is not repeatable and the economists is labeled a liar and fraud. Use some friggen common math sense, you are being watched all the time for this kind of horse shit.
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