Tuesday, August 25, 2020

Antificants are quite typical

There is no apocalyptic collapse. The dems are not destined to lead us into Bernie Land.

But the Antificant main base is in Portland, and sorry for Portland. BLM is ad hoc.  Otherwise the revolt is barely different than the 60s revolt. The complaints partially justified, the US government engages in some bonehead plots and these need to be written off. That was the basis of the 60s revolt.

But the dems will drive a hard bargain on the pension bailouts. That comes with a long term tax battle. And increasingly desperate small states. This may be too complex for the politicians and special interests. 

Kamala has to figure out there is no pension bailout until we cash in the state capitals. She needs their votes.  The pension bailout will be four years of chaos, like Obamacare. Likely the one thing Biden can get done. That is a long time for the state capitals t be paused.  Kamala might get a better deal after we get a New Fed contract. Use half that default liquidity to subsidies pension returns by a point. For every two dollars of debt erased, but a dollar of pension debt. But you need senate approval, you have to pay off the states.

To get the pensions adapted to 4% return,  Congress could provide a point, the retired boomers supply as point and state supplies a point. Otherwise the public sector will be composed of young antificants, angry as hell for being stuck with the bill.

While writing off a third of the federal debt. All the inflation adjustments will have to go. Earmarks gone. I doubt we can even afford the jammed up federal court system, not half the defense budget.

Tax battles. Californians want a super wealth tax, Biden wants to keep state taxes below 400,000 income.   They will both run out of funds before the decision is made. The Fed will face a bankers revolt, or capitulation; neither is good.  The banks will not survive ten years f the Fed tax, they are being over run by shadow bankers.  But it is all a chain, the senators will not agree until they  have the details of pension bailouts.  The trade is their cash to the state capital vs pension subsidies.

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