Sunday, August 30, 2020

How can the Treasury default smoothly?

 Seems a contradiction, the New Fed is independent under Due Process. But the Treasury defaults?

The New Fed is a lease, the Treasury can create money at 2% annual in return. So a residual power to buy bonds on the run and erase them, remains. If is a contract, enforced by the Supremes.  Treasury can just send the money, whatever, but the   The goal is to pack the defaults among the periods of deflation. The devaluations are variance bound, probably by 2%. Hence my guess is that we may hit a peak of 5% inflation within two years, but it won't last.

An independent Fed is forced to compete, with monopoly powers plus a burden.  The net is another 3% productivity gain, over all, we will be back to deflation in about five years. But there are diminishing returns, the 15 year renewal may not be as generous. I dunno.

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