Monday, August 24, 2020

Cultural evolution as a short cut

 History as Evolution*

The Coasian view, the cultural traditions are likely to out last you, so take the Coasian approach.

How does cultural learning take place? Antficants rebel against traditionalists.   The past becomes more accurate over time and contradictions in the traditional vie are observed, ex poste. In particular repeat sequences become publicly traded.

Once a tradition becomes aliased, hedged,then it eventually becomes mixed in, a binomial bet.  Winter holidays have become a year round preparation for retailers. Economic efficiency over rules culture.  Walmat mass retail outlet are another example. The more packed the city the less strength the culture.

Some culture is imprinted, unlikely to move, like the Senate/house structure with their scale mismatched states.   One is best to keep and improve it.  Some culturals lead to clashes, like the California union culture. And most cultural rules rely on a bit of delusion.

Cultural rules are super positions, preventers of ergodic adaptation.  The states can never be ergodic, they need superposition, two bets, one on state scale issues, and one on national program efficiency. We knowingly live with a partition and can spread the risk and approach ergodism.  That is Coase.

The evolution of central banking is adaptation, it is actually improving with science.  The culture of the right to coin is mismanaged, leading to distorting Fed taxes. That can be fixed, and normal instability of central banking returned.

Take the credit card. An innovation that became a cultural institution.  s cultural is still engages in generation tech updates until today the cash card has a chip and near field communications.   The movement to a next level of brains in the credit card i always due.

Culture is not doing well against the evolving cloud. The bots can hedge the cultural traditions fairly well.   The search bots find earmarks, hence the technology of earmarks improve  with cash payments, well justified. When the bots can hedge the future path of Fed taxes, then the Fed is powerless.. The bots expose hidden government losses from long ago, long before the new generation inherits the right to coin.  Even after all these corrections, i still expect innovations to outpace inflation in monetary regimes going forward.

We are talking about a New Fed free from Congress regulations for 15 years, a simple due Process requirement.  Leveraging existing tech is a 3% gain in transaction productivity, easy, balanced against the direct 2% inflation.  The mos efficient path is that large government programs get a fed account and go accounting with Due Process cash. The Senators will insist on it since they earn 3 billion for their state with common sense.

The Fed wins the ledger game with a well designed Swift currency regime. They are then competitive with any of the other ledger schemes. Congess ultimately retains right of enforcement on Swift cash and Spectre cache limits. Tis path to devaluation passes the Supremes test.

The Fed contract is simple. The Fed shall typically bear 1/5 of the currency risk, but may go up to 1/3 in non adiabatic requnt. Otherwise it is a Due Process trader of liquidity, just like Coinbase, a mach maker.

To the financial community it is clear, this plan will likely be a paretto efficient move, may go no where the Nixon Shock highs.  Treasury may be desiring a renewal sooner than later to boost its default rate. Fine and dandy, wash rinse and repeat this cycle.

We drop the transaction cost of banking  to near zero. No poor homeless person can be excluded from being a hand held secure Swift banker. Sense of connectivity and communiy spread. The tech spreads into recognition of unmanned vehicles, on he street and in the air. a secure chipometric, tied back to a live biometric..It leads to secure shared data at the institutional level.  Likely doubles or triple web efficiency.

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