Sunday, January 7, 2018

Bubba and Obama, same economy

Both entered the White House with grand ideas and self-righteousness.  Both ended up with split government. Both were forced into a sequester, both had the longest, stable post war expansions in history.

They both almost blew it up front by listening to kanosians, but eventually broken government worked.  I noticed Jerry Brown in his second go around had the same change of heart. A believer in stimulus for about a week, then it is back to broken California government.

The sphere is packed in the government channel.  Governments around California have to have a half point of accuracy out of 15 points of the economy, we cannot do that. But worse, we have to  accommodate Federal tradebook uncertainty.

Those numbers

California government is the single counter party with 15% share that is varying by 3%, at best. The variance comes from typical price variation.  Because of theration, government needs to be 3/6 of bit error, about a half point accuracy within the local governments.  Government needs to predict their own prices to a half point to keep their market aligned with their economic conditions, specifically tax income.  As the single counter party, they have a managed market situation.  In terms of window size, government needs a very long tax window to smooth out disruptions going forward.  But the sphere out in California has long ago reached its maximum window size, we are not getting better at Pi.

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