there are no good explanations for the astounding scale of the decline in crime (not just murders) [In New York]Scott Sumner discussing crime theory.
I have a theory, armies on the move. Cities don't really fight crime, directly. They attack the logistics of the ghetto armies and force the gangs to migrate from city to city and they eventually end up dying young and homeless. So we moved the gangs from NYC to Chicago, from there they move to LA. Eventually they get taxed out of LA and end up in Texas, then wash rinse and repeat. It is how we do evolution here in the good old USA, a bit more refined than how they do it in the Middle East.
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