Biofuels, facts and figures.

First, the net energy ratio of corn-based ethanol (useful energy divided by the energy required to produce a unit of ethanol) is at best 1.25 but in practice a lot worse. Some have calculated a ratio less than one, meaning that it takes more energy to produce ethanol from corn than the energy content of the fuel.Because of very large government subsidies (see more below) the growth in corn-based ethanol has been nothing short of meteoric. From 2000 to 2010, ethanol production in the United States from the fermentation of corn, increased from 1.6 to 13.2 billion gallons per year. In 2011 this is expected to grow to almost 14 billion gallons. Congressional mandates have decreed that by 2022, biofuels blended into the US gasoline pool will increase to 35 billion gallons per year.

A site called Fuel Fix.  Ths means that biofuels today likely cause more CO2 emissions than fossil fuels.   Our best approach to global warming at the moment, is paint your roof white and work on fossil fuel; efficiency.

That does not mean no production scale plants, it means experimental production, small scale and work the inefficiencies. The other point is that corn may not be the best feedstock, but it is easy to mass produce.

The current technical problem is mass production of an fuel adapted feedstock without contamination.  Solar efficiency, efficiency per square meter of sun is less important rather than availability of clean water. Biofuels can be solar inefficient as long as feedstock supply is cheap. For both solar electric and solar biofuel, we have plenty of land space.

Planck curve

The emission spectrum of the black body.  Woki has a nice derivation, and the first 80% is just combinatorics/. Botzmann started it by writing the combinatoric of an ideal gas at equilibrium in a container.  If the gas of assumed to know pi accurate enough, then we get the Euler condition being me, we can approximate the histogram to an exponential equation in euler's number.  This is the sphere packing assumption,. and it yielded the proverbial PV=nRT.

Since light wave and particle are dual, one can be solve in term of the other, Planck tried the same trick with a box full of photons.   But he required the photons be quantized, they interact just a bit to meet the boundary condition,. where temperature equilibrates..  Internal, the photons do not interact, Boltzmann had them bounce like perfect spheres.  Quantize is equivalent  to having an integer metric space sufficiently accurate to planks uncertainty, quants of uncertainty.

He gets the energy density which transforms to spectral density in sphere packing world. Emission spectra is spectral density factored, sort of.

The point is, most of that was just combinatorics, how many ways can n things be selected from N things. Then we introduce bound system uncertainty, Plancks constant.

Wiki did a good job, educated me.

Oil up, housing down, pension stampedes rampant

To $74, bend but not break.  Marginal producers can keep it below $80, for no3w. This is Iran oil being kicked off the dollar.  Ten year jumped 20 basis point, suddenly, in the past few weeks.  That is causing home sales to turn down.  Still bend but not break. 

Unemployment dropping caused by boomers retiring, about ready to break. Pension stampedes cause interest charges to jump, hence the rate rise.  Especially the ten year government where the SS payouts happen. 

The pension stampedes are a result of agglomerations of labor into specific pension plans with ad hoc, optional optimum exit doors.  There is flexibility in retirement among state workers in Cal, for example.  But like a wave function that collapses to ground state on observation, groups of workers tied to a single plan hit the sweet spot an d suddenly exit.  DROP plans and other special payouts, save vacation days loom large, then there are the age bounds.  These stampedes cause short term debt volatility and long term creditors get skitish, the ten year rises, the Congressional budget takes a sudden whack.

Making dollars

We consider that the Open Bankers decide to allow digital bearer note, limited by time and count.  Ity is a service, not a loan. The customer leaves a thousand in a frozen account and gets crypto dollars.  Crypto dollars pass right off the card, all the merchants love it.

How big of a block chain do I need so all parties can check liquidity at their option?  The official bankers declare all parties paid and closes their client account until a restart.  They delete, they shorten the tree, it is always being pruned.  In that case we might say the tree is a structured queue. the customers spending trace a unique sub-graph. The officials clear the account and agree to delete the trace, leaving ownership in tact.  Male it fioniter, know and this is like sharding, every day the bank computerds agree on which accounts are done and which are starting.

This is easy, known technology in the cloud, if we can use crypoto as needed.  Merchants can keep the current copy, it is small enough to ship around.  Convenient for wages. The merchant makes a lump sum payment to thre banker and distributed the equivalent amount to workers in digi-dollars.  High school kids will be doing all of this.

The Commie Rats have become a social justice identity

Beijing Demands Trump "Stop Unceasing Criticism And Slander Of China"

The simplicity of central bank liquidity in digital systems

I talked about this before, enforce a contract that lets the bots manipulate a banking account. This is all easy to do if Open Banking stays around.

Write a secure app in your smartphone to pass around the account password, and limit spending to specified value.  If the smartphone is hack secure then it can be made app secure, and all parties use the same secure trading bot which operates its own hidden key. In fact, writing this app is an upper grad project, a starving student will do it as a simple example of using open banking.  Secretly passing secure tokens among a network of smartphone users is already done when the smartphone presents its security kernel calls.


Makes life simple, just touch phones and loan out a twenty.  But wait, you say, we can use Open Banking to switch money between accounts, directly with a message to SWIFT.  But that app is actually more complicated, it involves a third party in the code.   The secure phone already passes secure messages, it should also be able to hide a random, self generated key.  

The the shortest app it to keep track of money message sent and avoid double spends while properly subtracting from the virtual account.. A hundred lines of code while the other app using banks will be another five hundred lines of code.

We have some big conflicts on the road ahead regarding pure liquidity and security.  Most of the current bankers are  aware. They have good trade press.  They have one choice, join the parade and impose their own contract including a reserve requirement.  Central bank still has tax currency monopoly, I see no problem.  Keep Open Banking and central bank can produce the liquidity app themselves.

Choo choo go bye bye

Backers of a November initiative to repeal the gas-tax increase said Monday they will also ask voters to approve a measure in 2020 that would provide funds to fix roads without charging Californians more at the pump, and would halt the state’s $77-billion high-speed rail project.The ballot measure was announced on the same day the campaign against Proposition 6 launched television ads saying the repeal will jeopardize funds needed to make California roads and bridges safe.Supporters of the new initiative to be filed Tuesday say it addresses a criticism of Proposition 6 by Gov. Jerry Brown and others who warn that elimination of the higher gas tax and vehicle fees approved last year will leave the state billions of dollars short of what is needed to repair its deteriorating transportation network.

Dump Kavanaugh

Judge Kavanaugh has taught me so much about how the world works

I knew that in those rich-kid private schools the teachers decide who goes to which school. I know that, for example, Yale takes a certain number of kids from Choate, and Choate tells Yale which kids will be the best fit. There is a symbiotic relationship. Choate can say they always get kids into Yale. And Yale knows they’ll get the best kids for Yale without having to do much searching.What I didn’t know was that the most coveted clerkships work the same way. Judge Kavanaugh always takes law students from Yale. The symbiotic relationship there is that Yale can say their students always get great clerkships, and in exchange Yale law professor Amy Chua makes sure Kavanaugh always has a stream of female law school students who look like models. Really. 

It is an inside game, dump the guy go get a smart country lawyer. 

The logic of secure smartphones

ANZ lets customers use smartphones and smartwatches to withdraw cash from ATMs across Australia


If my smartphone is secure enough to utilize the ATM, then why bother with paper?  If the ATM trusts the smartphone enough to give it cash, then the store clerk can trust the same app to hold bearer tokens, rather than paper.  There is a good chance the clerk and shopper both use BofA, so the store clerk can check to see if the smartphone contains valid spending digits without double spend.

Once you trust the device to handle cash, then  you automatically trust it to avoid double spending.  Old style credit cards worked that way, no call to the bank, just trust the shopper and clear the account with paper at some later date.

Paper is on its way out, but cash is still king.  Here is the follow on:

For the first time in our nation's history, voters in 24 counties in W. Virginia will be able to vote using their mobile phones. While some are hailing the decision because it will make voting easier for members of the military deployed overseas, experts are warning of possible security breaches."After researching previously available options, the Secretary’s team identified that most electronic ballot delivery technology required access to a desktop computer, printer and scanner, all of which present significant barriers to overseas voters, especially those in combat zones or engaged in covert operations," the W. Virginia Secretary of State's office explained in a press release this week. The state is partnering with a Boston, Massachusetts-based company called Voatz, Inc.

If the banks trust the smartphone with cash then counties should trust the smartphone for voting.  The smartphones, these days, are coming with biometrics.  Passcode and fingerprint is all we need for security.  The problem is the NSA, they want to peek at the smartphone keys.  NSA will need to do a deal soon, they cannot be allowed to peek at voting.

Tap, tap shopping, the fantastic way to shop

PARTNER NEWS: NXP has launched two new NFC tags that incorporate both product protection and channel authentication security features, enabling brands to take advantage of the tag reading capabilities of both Android and iOS devices to roll out NFC-based customer communication and product authentication services at scale.

I didn't get all this myself, I read the research work and extrapolate.  Fintech has good trade press and the reporting is well aware the goal.  I knew years ago that they we going to tap the price beacons and just added it into the sandbox.  I did not even invent the name 'sandbox', I stole it.

It does indicate blue bars

Negative US 2-10’s Yield Curve Doesn’t Indicate Recession

The flattening U.S. Treasury yield curve, traditionally believed to signal an oncoming recession, is no cause for alarm as the country’s economy continues to be strong, analysts say.The analysts who spoke to International Business Times also said the 2-10’s yield curve spread is not a reliable indicator of a recession. They note that it would be incorrect to use a single measure to draw conclusions on the prospects of the economy.

There we have it, when the line drops below zero a blue bar follows.

Looks like fingerprint technology is here

Hengbao has announced a partnership with IDEX Biometrics the leading provider of advanced fingerprint identification and authentication solutions. The two companies have partnered to introduce contact based biometric smart cards across the Asian market, with future plans to trial dual-interface cards. Hengbao supports cards for multiple payment network specifications, including Mastercard, China Union Pay, VISA, and JCB.

They have a thumbprint detector on the card, and verify the identity one the spot.  This was one of the technical barriers, and now is available.   All the components seem available, and on the market.  The key elements were solving the spectre problem, biometrics and auto pricing.  All of those are working.  

And the UK is running an open banking sandbox, without bearer cash however:

Placing their money with challenger banks over traditional financial institutions.According to The New York Times, favorable regulations in the region and a rise in investor funding have helped boost business for mobile banking companies like Monzo, a British startup that offers checking accounts and ATM cards without a physical branch. Instead, all transactions are done through its app.Last year, Monzo became one of the first challenger banks to receive a license allowing it to hold customers’ deposits on its own, something no startup in the United States has achieved so far.“Our regulator is pretty forward-thinking,” said Tom Blomfield, the co-founder and chief executive of Monzo, referring to Britain.In fact, U.K. authorities have introduced policies such as a “regulatory sandbox” which allows challenger banks to test new financial products and receive feedback from regulators before releasing them to the public.

Notable

Opera Launches Special ‘Labs’ Version of Built-In Crypto Wallet for Desktop Browser

Think of that browser function that auto-fills forms for you.  This is a trend, the secure element within the processor.  We will ge embedded, secure javascript next to the secured keys.    Browsing the financial markets is what the bots do, autonomously. The secure element has to digest and emit JSON script, through non-memory mapped portals or in instruction cache with spectre standards. The secure element hold account values along with keys.  Leave itg at that and monetary opcodes are tiny JSON script.

But, but... The secure element supports bearer cash,  it enforces the double spend restriction.  So, why not embed the whole js interpreter into the secure element, it becomes standalone when need be and needs little display. Then create the concept of voluntarily enforced contracts, and app layer within the card.  When you adjust accounts, sometimes, the ledger service needs info from you, and all that exchange should go through your smart card, it is always carried with a thumb, carrying your guarantee.

Security starts at the foundry. All processors can create their own secret kehy, and the first to exchange are the new dard processor and foundry processor. They keep the secret key and emit the puplic key to the other.  The card will always accept messages from the foundry.

Otherwise, who enforces double spend?  By thumbprint. The first embedded app is the thumb print enabled bearer cash function.  From their we get ATM apps to adjust cash balances an manage discount coins.  If you have your card, at a hotel room then use any interne connection and your handheld, or the lobby computer.  All the core details are in your card, protected by thumb print.

IBM Watson can have fun

Feed Watson all your favorite investment books, for a starter.  Then give it  PoA.  Watson watches all the markets, all of them fair traded transparent auto-priced. Watson went to college and knows all the formal syntax and semantics of the cash layer, the contracts traded. Watson can handle risky bets.

So Watson has a huge semantic graph, and your investment profile is a much smaller search graph. The convolution of the two yields your investment recommended. The result also a semantic graph, in JSON, fed to your card. The card handles the rest. 

That was the point of the semantic machine project.  Consider convolving two JSON directed graphs.  Add your twenty rules of grammar, and changed them in other context, but you just kept this core JSON convolving machine.  All attachments had the same basic interface, it had to be presented as a graph responding to four or five basic graph traversals.

Javascript simply has Javascript grammar, but otherwise is a JSON convolution machine.  Take the core, define your special grammar, then add e book, financial data, all in run time, just make it look like a directed graph.  Like a component system, at is core is the generic JSON convolution.  Then you get a run time pattern match system, allowing ad hoc rules, as needed for contex.  A machine like this, a Watson, can watch the pure cash markets, for a fee.  We are all going to get our own Warson, soon.

I am getting clever with my taxes.

Simple 1040, I can edit the pdf files, works fine and I can generate two or three in a day.  But it is not going to continue, it stops in a week or so as I am efficient now, Ten lines on a spread sheet duplicates everything needed on the 1040. Another ten lines for the state.

Fuel stations in orbit

Elon Musk just gave the most revealing look yet at the rocket ship SpaceX is building to fly to the moon and Mars

Elon want to fuel his space ship in near earth orbit before flying the moon. The business we need is fuel stations, replenished with robotic ships.   Send up the tanks, full, separately. Hold them safely then attach them to your ship in orbit.

The gas station attendant runs abourtin an orbital scooter.

Reversion to tribalism

Libya Urges United Nations To Take "Concrete Action" To Halt Chaos In Tripoli

So Javascript wins on the smart card?

If we like JSON interfaces, then get javascript for tiny windows. Then you need the battery. Make it as thin as possible, and durable,  tiny display. Watch battery.

Open Banking API

I am beginning tom read up a bit on the new banking software standaard. Beginner.

They have a lab sandbox to try out some transactions.  The big plus, they do all their interacting in JSON, a standard and natural gtext notation.  They do PUT and GET to the web site.

Some calls are complex, like create a new account to prequalify in a liquidity net. Do that off line, like they have already set up dummy account profiles.

Once you have granted PoA to a bot inside the market, it is all bearer asset.  Prequal, check in and check out.    Your bot is inside the computer, sharing space with the piot boss, the two will directly adjust accounts.  Each bot can generate a valid prequal as it is assigned the cryptobadge,  Inside the API is a direct manipulation of the instruction cache.

So, we have the secure, transaction safe kernel, prequalified, verifiable  bot code, and your hand held generates a public verification key.  All assert exchanges go through the spectre secure instruction cache.

So, break the Open Banking standard up  into components and the tiniest component having a few key operations stand out for microcode.

Flow
We plug our card into our handheld and bring up the set and adjust accounts application.  The card is acting as your bank, your personal accountant.  So it has to take the few most important APIs and embed them.  

There are other APIs the card can emit,for authorization and set up of a trading bot the.  Only your thumb printed card can start up robotic trading in the liquidity network.  The card is peer to peer, there is always another card at the other end or your are running an application.  

The card is both an investment banker and a personal account manager, so it plays both sides of the API.  That means subselect the most important from each group.  Put those as macros on the card, and go on with the JSON interface.

Pension stampede

In the four weeks ended Sept. 16, more than one-quarter of the homes listed for sale had a price drop, according to Redfin, a real estate brokerage. That is the highest level since the company began tracking the metric in 2010. Redfin defines a price drop as a reduction in the list price of more than 1 percent and less than 50 percent.

Then add in the higher mortgage rates.   It is happening faster in the west, where the hot markets are.  The west aloso host a shitload of public sector workers, and a whole generation is retiring; They sell the house and move to cheaper, smaller hime.

Hardware wallets

In the bold face I noticed hedge fund clients are lining up for Ledger hardware wallets. They are building apps on top of secure card.  The result is liquidity network, hedge funds themselves can provide marinal S&L for their clients.  FIDO helps here, it is a basic definition of key management so apps know how to get verification.

Ledger, one of the leading security-focused hardware wallet suppliers, has sold more than one million hardware crypto wallets in 2017, earning a profit of $29 million, the firm said in an interview with Forbes July 9....Gauthier noted that the newly launched multi-user product Ledger Vault, which is designed for hedge funds and retail investors, has already caused a stir, with “literally clients queueing outside our office to buy it.” Apart from introducing Ledger Vault, the company has recently teamed up with Japanese global investment bank Nomura Bank to develop a crypto custody solution for institutional investors. The new joint venture “Komainu” aims to deliver a digital asset infrastructure and operational framework for institutional investors.

Open banking standard are driving this compatibility.  Open Banking from UK?, is another list of the basic transaction methods.   All tis is rapid, transformational. replacing markets with bot networks.

Opcodes and interpreters

There’s a lot of discussion concerning the Bitcoin Cash (BCH) network hard fork coming this November. One of the topics is an implementation called OP_Checkdatasig (CDS) that’s been added to the Bitcoin ABC clients’ roadmap and codebase. Basically, CDS is an opcode that could theoretically enhance the BCH protocol’s scripting ability. When Satoshi created bitcoin, the software included a scripting system much like the programmable language Forth. In addition to the scripting, the codebase also included script words otherwise known as ‘opcodes.’ There are quite a few opcodes and all of them do various commands or binary functions but most of them were disabled long ago.

They are discussing a web based interpretive transaction.  We will do this in our smart card, so give us the top ten, or the top ten SWIFT, or the top ten Ripple.    Put the ten in a secure, embedded processor in the card.  The list must support a variety of ledger systems. The card then looks like a standard investment  Shopping with Walmart is me and the clerk, behind us we both have the same investment bank watching our bacvks. bank in the peer to peer network.

Cede power of attorney to your processor

A momentous occasion, the birth of true AI.  

We do this with our dominant hand, we are conscious of of that hand, we tap with it.   The card generates its own secret key letting it engage in accounting with other cards. It is subject to a thumb print, is the great thing. We can shut it down in whole or part. The key generation and the biometrics can be bound at the foundry.  A fair deal, one the NSA can live with.

Application model, for me, is the spreadsheet.  Plug your card ingo the laptop, thumbprint at the ready.  The card interacts with your spreadsheet, has live entries even. Online shopping can be done while watching your spreadsheet accounts adjust.   That card is like our guard, it interacts fairly with others like it.  It becomes indispensable

Empire games

Strategy in discovering then taking over cities.  Addictive, mainly as I tire of software which the alternative geek stuff.

The technique is the same, all players are working on a decision tree, in the computer it is graph.  Basically it is a problem  of finding a homomorphic graph of the opposition, under uncertainty.  Noded weightings are equivalent to price, Alpha Zero is a price maker, it plays these games.

The homomorphic graph is a simpler version of the real thing.  If you took the larger graph and 'compressed' it a bit, you get the smaller, and it should be homomorphic.  Important concept, it means we can price balance two pricing graphs;  In the computer, they are like a specially designed digit system, in nested block you get optimum quant with an ordering, it has some linear properties.  So a compact representation of a stable queue looks like a digit sequence'

For example, consider two of these nested block sequences.  Together, two of these graphs can be shaped to be homomorphic as long as parties can carry the round off error, which can be be optimum.  How do we reshape them? Add our dummy bets in each, compress part of one, expand part of another until they are nearly equal.  Yhis is how the market maker works.

So, you see, there is a perfectly natural method in the computer to match any two sequences as long as they both minimize transaction counts as as goal.  The issue in the computer is the work need to encode the nested block, lot of sorting.  But there is carry over, the entire sequence may nor be collected by holding the previous graph as a starting point there will be fewer sort moves.  We can mostly be adiabatic, no one will notice the sorting pauses.

It is pricing that makes it work, the AI folks call it weighting value on a node.

Taxes, taxes, taxes

The IRS and especially the California tax board a nightmare. Inundated with forms all around.  Hard to fix the mess when both the state and federales have there huge, immediate obligations and teeter in the brink of stoppage. Both parties have their complaints, but the politicians of the parties will always spend first and tax later.,

My game addiction went away

I figured out I was gaming as a diversion from programming, I even got the python system up on the new old computer.  But, I guess, I thought, program what? Operations on queue structures.

If I keep my deposit and loan queues structured, can I compare them for homomorphic? Think if a directed graph with poisson queues at each node.  It woul\d be like computing the mutual entropy of the two processes.  In python the S&L structures are iterated nested block, only works with graphs having no loops.  The two compact graphs, side by side, python can iterate through the both, directed, and create the homomorphic versions then ratios work, the queues at each node can scale together.

We get an isolated type of graph convolution, not N^2, but NlogN in counts. And the real bonus, all the nodes can be priced, derive pricing on an economic  value chain ex post.  The algorithm can expand the rank of a graph as long as a pit boss accumulates the residual in the match between S and L.  There is a conservation of finite bandwidth, variance, is not created out of thin air.

We get a very high speed automatic banker, hundred thousand transactions a second, all the clients are trading bots,   Do this in the new AI chips, very amenable to graphics type processors.  But I ain't programming this.  This is good, valuable cloud function, revolutionary, well worth the funding.  

Auto S&L has big bucks, but the transaction activity has to be initiated, thumb printed.  What we do is auto price everything, real time auction essentially.  Everything having a valid contract, it connects to another thumbprint, or more,  The machine simply pushes society to be maximally satisfied, pricing does thqt, it is sufficient for the processors, they are not doing ad hoc if/then statements.. Smart cards are coming.

Human fighter pilots became extinct

For The First Time Ever, A Drone Shoots Down Another Drone In Unmanned Air-To-Air Combat

Drones do not need to carry a crew compartment.  They can make sharp turns without blacking out.  And, best of all, they are not afraid to die in combat. And they can launched just about anywhere, and  can swarm them..

Fighter maneuvers are standard, easily done automatically. Given the advantages of robotic fighter jets, the human will opt out.  So the general approach is to have a single F35 standoff and manage a swarm of drones in forward position.

Fear of a second oil spike

Angry Bear reports:
Behavioral economists have shown that people in general react twice as strongly to the fear of a loss vs. the anticipation of an equivalent gain. A good example in the everyday economy is that consumers cut back spending twice as sharply in the face of an oil price spike, as they loosen their spending in the face of a steep decline in gas prices.

Fear of something? A second oil spike was under way due to the stimulus crowding out limited supply.  We can see the price of oil rise again after the recession and it was not until we figured out fracking worked and stimulus crowded out.  And fear of oil shortages is why we cut the stimulus short, however fracking saved the day offering marginal production to offset shortages.

So this hand held banker bot

Many of us will want a full python interpreter our cash cards, and learn how to prequalify trade algorithms written in the language. Techies will make short order of that issue.

The card has a simple display, like a digital watch. To find out what the card is up to, plug it into the USB port and it will run its accounting sheets.  It is a bit more stiff than a chip card today, but durable and leather wallet proofed.  It has a four way button. 

Most of your account set up is done while it connected to your personal device.

Look at Jeff, with 300 million Amazon primes, each getting the smart card, with an automated liquidity machine, make Amazon goods flow go smoother and faster.  Amazon prime users get online, with their cards, and down load various python trading routines, with restrictions and bonuses. Like giving their customers a sudden boost over the rest, a step to the front of the line.

Underneath the covers.

On your permission, the card will log into a banked network, like  VPM.  The cad has access o, and will use auo banker, the cloud service.  The auto parts network, a good example. Each of the employees downloads the python app. The app know how to order parts, new, used or swapped.  Employees use their own card, it acts like an almost perfect attorney, tading agent.

Here is where discount coins work.  Auto repair shops, parts distributors can essentially exchange personal debt across on a peer to peer basis.    The effect is to smooth out lumpy inventory.

Trust
Each card carries its own secret key, and a common secret key. Any two cards can exchange verification on a peer to peer basis, leaving only counterfeit proofing the main issue.  Costs are low, over a lifetime cheaper than materials in a hundred dollar bill. The extremely low transaction costs lets you set the counterfeit risk.

Personal free speech and assembly?

Tesla Says It Has Turned Over Documents to the Justice Department

Elon can try 'Citizen's United', claiming he himself cannot be robbed from free speech on Twitter.  

His board can fire him, or if he owns the board he can be Elon.  

But no. When Tesla incorporated was there any voluntary agreement to a blanket non-disclosure?  If Elon is blocked via some ex ante corporate disclosure agreement then Citizen's United is dead law.  Citizen's United invalidated that portion of the corporate agreement.  Conflict, this is why we have corporations, so government and agents can volunteer.

Citizen's United fouled things up.  In fact the corporate agreement is a voluntary contract between agents and the government agency.  Both parties can agree to a nearly blanket non-disclosure, it is contract law, we can voluntary (with the SEC and other government agencies)  give up some rights if it is time limited and not cruel or unusual.  In this case, Elon, like Citizen's United, are incorporated and have agreed to blanket speech control by the SEC and some government agencies.

What about the mayor spending his own time referendum affecting the union?  The mayor cannot agree to voluntary non-disclosure while being elected in a fair vote.  It is a violation of right to assembly for legislatures to specifically restrict the right.    But Tesla and Citizen;s United have extensive non-disclosures, the effect is to pre-qualify their accounting as business related, unaffected by external antics.

Hand puppets having sex?

Bert and Ernie are gay, former writer confirms. Sesame Street says they're just 'best friends'

Give each other a hand job. 

Currency issuer targets the stock market?

We can do that with a simple rule change, standard exchanges can issue the green back via marginal lending among the pre-qualified stock traders. The Fed edicts the issuance rate, all stock markets have a qualified margin bank that issues greenback according to the transparent rules.

We can do this in the sandbox, not a problem.  We get a banking structure backing the various stock markets, probably works and, oh by the way, you just invented a new sandbox company, Roger Farmer.  We don't need to issue currency, we need liquidity license from the Fed, the right to give the various bots running margin banks power of attorney.  The bot will be representation the Fed.

Egads the curve

Treasury rates up everywhere, rather suddenly.  Mortgage rate rise, housing dives.  Excess reserves dropping, grabbing the one year instead.  There is another group of stocks needing correcting after the jump.  Government budgets see a sudden 18 billion jump in appropriations, and sooner or later, has to go squeeze it from current priority, shifting programs out.

As Janet says, we can hardly see the paint dry.

 Why the jump in rates?

Hurricanes and EM.  Emerging markets are adjusting, actually, and will on average yield slightly higher rates.  EM has become old news, priced in.

For the record

The nearly complete sequence, oil in blue, housing in green and the implicit.  Now building construction, including home is somewhere about 8% of the economy, and of home prices.  Home prices rose too much, but they should have risen.   Housing may have freaked the financial system, but oil jolted us all.

Some notes.  In ex post dating the blue bar, how did they miss the oil jolts?  They didn't. 
The implicit should be NGDP minus real good growth, but they also smooth out the cycles, this is deceiving, the total result is not known. 
Fracking, when oil was around $100, made sense, and stabilized the economy.  For more than a year, mining employment growth lead the charts, and still does in Texas.  Clearly we suffered a major oil shock, hugely increased demand and wartime oil shortages.

Looks like crowding out to me

Paul claims cheap debt:

Brad DeLong * is upset about the stuff coming out of Chicago these days — and understandably so. First Eugene Fama, ** now John Cochrane, *** have made the claim that debt-financed government spending necessarily crowds out an equal amount of private spending, even if the economy is depressed 



Let us ask the chart. We have real growth, seasonal and otherwise compared to the government deficit, (yellow line) .  Deficits rise before the blue bars, and the blue nars are happening on presidential regime change.  The most straight forward indication is that each president leaves a ton of legacy debt to the next president, causing periodic cycles.  And we notice that deficits get worse over time, like we never make any kind of multiplier greater than one, mostly bailouts.

Flooding costs

I hear a number like 160B, about 2/3 of a point.  Government interest charges likely to jump 3% on the news, in an environment where congress is trying to eke out a 5 point growth in programs over the year..  Our political heroes in the Swamp have to watch their favorite programs closely in this environment.

Most of the budget was continuing resolution, congress wants the discretionary.  Discretionary spending gets pushed out a bit when charges rise, flood recovery takes priority. Congress has to run the midterms with fewer local projects.

Decentralized v centralized, again

Peter Thiel: Crypto vs AI Dichotomy Will Determine the Future of Humanity

He reads my blog?  Get to the heart of the matter, our handhelds need to keep their own secret key, that decentralizes for forever.  Make the deal with NSA, we can restrict transactions to short, cash exchanges and recognized power of attorney..  Most markets visible. Make the deal, take the Coasian route. Yes, a bit scary, like ceding control to the singularity, but we get voluntary exits from enforced contracts.

Ruskies do more laundry

In the latest salvo of cross-border probes over money laundering, The Wall Street Journalreported Friday (Sept. 14) that U.S. law enforcement agencies are examining Danske Bank over what has been termed “massive money laundering flows” from Russia and several former Soviet states.

Using the bearer asset market to go banking.  Illicitly obtained cash collected and aggregated into official banking. 

Davis Smith know spectral theory

So why the sense of déjà vu? It is because this is not the first time in recent years that pay growth has appeared to be breaking higher, only to subsequently disappoint. Just when the Phillips curve appears to be working – the lower the level of unemployment the higher the pressure for pay rises – it has gone on the blink again. Is it for real this time, or another false dawn? Are we about to see a sustained acceleration in pay growth, to the relief of beleaguered retailers and the government, if not the firms forced to cough up?

When we see the second peak, we recall the sequence in between, we have a complete sequence.  'I have seen this before',  he quotes.   Since we know what comes neet, we can easily set prices but we might requant.   But we all know, suddenly, is the macro surprise.

I call it spectral because in physics we have the sampled system theory meeting the band limit constraints of a channel.  There is a huge gain after the cost of requant.  Our channel share becomes apparent, we adjust the accounts in priority on our balance sheets. We are compelled because the sheets become suddenly more accurate.

Queuing theory keep a slight asymmetry, in the spectrum.  It is not compatible with the symmetry of bandwidth theory.  Hedging inevitably interrupt the new price scheme a bit.  My definition says a requant is an out of bounds restructure vs adiabatic which is a node by node isomorphism.  Queuing theory is finite, quantized, maximum entropy. It has a finite directed graph representation. Basic assumptions going in.

Palo Alto will be known has High Stick

 Stanford to remove references to Junipero Serra on campus.

You can get to Stanford by driving on The King's Road.  Then we have the saints, Saint Francis and Saint John.

I am not sure who they are pleasing with this, but I guess we have lost our Franciscan heritage.  They will need approval from the county of Saint Claire.

I will miss the rhythm of spanish grammar.

I have game addiction

A computer game.  I got over it a few years ago, then tried it again, got addicted again.

Redneck haven

University Announces "White Awake" Safe Space For White Students

I propose the  following theme song"

Adding a dynamic to an accounting identity

How Imports INCREASE GDP

I hear the push back from 'imports subtract from GDP' idea:

In recent posts, Pierre Lemieux and Scott Sumner refuted a common but mistaken idea: that because gross domestic product can be calculated by taking national expenditure data (i.e., the “C + I + G” part of the equation) and adding the value of exports while subtracting the value of imports (the “X – M” in said equation), imports reduce GDP.

Free traders think trade is good, and their point is that trade with other countries boosts GDP. 

 That does not mean the (X-M) is incorrect. The accounting identity works because all goods go through ports and make the simpler method of looking at the in and outs of trade at the port. The positive dynamics of free trade are already calculated when the imports are shipped. Stick with the story, trade is good and show the dynamics. But an accounting identity is not a dynamic.

Standard fare in sandbox

A Virtual Private Network is a software client that grants you an encrypted connection to the internet via a remote server. To any websites inspecting your IP address, it will appear that you are located elsewhere in the world. With your web traffic appearing to originate from the server you are connected to, third parties will struggle to ascertain your actual geographical location. Connect to a VPN server in Georgia, for example, and you will be treated to the same web content as any US resident of The Peach State, even though you may actually be in Britain or Spain.

Your bot has power of attorney, and sits right there in a hot wallet at the web site itself, trading.  You may be anywhere.   The bots are safe, pre-tested.  The cash layer inverts the security, no humans allowed at all, everything valid is a 'virus'.

The issue came up because VPNs are the method to avoid information privacy laws in Europe.  The information privay rules require consent forms on every new web site.  Using the VPM is like using an ad blocker, the whole mess is avoided.  But this is also the way we do it in sandbox, prequalifying is a member application, it does the security check once, in the contract.  Then your bot are free to roam  in the cash network specified.

A bit of deflation

Import Prices Unexpectedly Drop 0.6%, Most in 18 Months: Export Prices Drop 0.1%

Mish had a chart:

 

Too much CPI for the consumer to handle with these trade prices. Oil has been mostly stable, up to now.  But the Iran issue and Venezuela threaten.

The ten year is at 3%, I think long term trend says 2.5% is all we can handle.  Long term deflation is planned with EMs struggling to hold on.

Sessions, doesn't understand the issue

"If a traveler admits to past use of any illegal drugs, including marijuana, the traveler will be found to be inadmissible into the United States." 

A lot of stuff gets used, a lot of it illegal, they are not nearly equal.  Target the really bad ones, save your ammo, pot isn't worth it.

Camptown is big business

Jeff Bezos Homeless Pledge Follows Amazon Fight Against Housing Tax

Sell equipment and prefab micro homes. Coolers, heaters, mess equipment, sewage kits; booming business.  I have the business plan in my head.  Amazon does world wide warehousing of large scale camptown equipment.

Consider that you are a qualified trader in the auction hall

 Then the way we do the prequaled is traders deposit in the unit of account and trade with cash margin in advance.  They deposit into the equivalent of an credit machine, automatic,  guaranteeing adiabatic charges (Interest changes less than or equal to the pit boss market error). Then money neutrality is irrelevant, you can inject and eject the stuff according to a bettable trend. 

Any group on agreement can do this, it is a spreadsheet function and automation sends bearer asset transaction costs to near zero, all banking bot.  So the smart card works well here, at all levels, fair trading.  We agree to let the bots enforce the rules, with and opt out for us.

More smart cash card stuff

Biometric Smart Cards to Place Customers at the Centre of Innovation

Silently in the background, a group of disruptive fintech’s have been busy creating the next innovation wave to rock the industry and transform the physical card as we know it. Not only will this address security concerns, but it will break down barriers to bolster the popularity of the contactless card. Make way for the biometric smart payment card.Due to its highly unique nature, a fingerprint is extremely secure and therefore an ideal technology to layer on additional security features within end markets, including payments, where multi-factor authentication is becoming the norm. However, getting a fingerprint sensor on a card has – until now – been a challenge. Cards are extremely thin, lightweight and are passive in nature with no built-in active power source. This is where innovative fingerprint recognition systems come into play, now ready to be attached to the everyday payment card used across the globe.

Cards that know your finger print, likely to be millions of them in 2019.  The article talks about innovation, the uses of a smart ID card are more numerous to be counted.  Users do not trust their telephones for payment, prefer the card.  The wait was about the sensor technology being ready.    The more functional cards will be powered with watch batteries and need plugging in.  This is not a problem since all our financial planning will be on our personal computer devices, the card sitting on a USB port,

These cards will be personal, secure contract managers,  Consider the case that a bank offers cash in advance, to a limit  if borrowers keep a certain reserve against unexpected interest charges.  The card can honor that contract, it can be spelled out in the code in your card.  Now the  cost of  Know Your Customer and due dilligence is gone.  We need only load trhe contract conditions in our card, the lender knows the condition is being met unil one voluntarily quits.  This capability is the holy grail of banking, it means that the lending function can be automated.  No one needs to know the identity of the borrower, or the project being lent for.

Rick Scott, socialist bum

The Florida governor enthusiastically slashed environmental programs during his two terms, but is now blaming the ensuing water crisis on his Democratic Senate opponent.

Rick Scott yet again wants the fede3fals to fix a problem entirely in is state. 

 He did this with mass school shooting; give guns to nuts then blame the federals for the mass shootings. Repubs, especially in  Florida are at this game all the time.  Worse than Texas, ignore state problems then beg the federals for more handouts.

Yes Paul, this is a debt spiral

Paul thinks the green line, debt/ngdp, is not rising.

These days that rate is well below 3 percent even when the economy is near full employment. Meanwhile, we think the U.S. economy has an underlying growth rate of maybe 2 percent, plus 2 percent inflation – which means 4 percent nominal growth.
What this means is that debt doesn’t spiral. On the contrary, it tends to fall as a share of GDP unless the government runs large primary deficits.

The bolded text is his mistake, he is likely using the one year rate which is at 2.5.  

But the real rate is the ten year rate which Congress pays.  The blue line is the real rate we pay, interest charge / total debt ( including the trust funds). The red line is the ten year rate, the two track, we pay the ter year rate.

The timeline clearly shows a debt spiral, the green line continually rises.

Egad!

Minimum real GDP losses a half point. We did it last year, worse, weathered it.

That was then this is now. We have 45 basis points to play with 1-10 slope, the ten year at 2.97%.

Florence is a strong gust on our kicked can, floating toward the goal posts.  Black Swan type stuff, sort of unexpected. And California is firing up the forests again.  Interest charges already expected to jump for the Swamp, well past bound.   Nightmare stuff.

Digital bearer cash

• The Stable-Coin Myth - Barry Eichengreen

Not completely pure cash but a stable coin is easier to move around on the ledger than traditional bank transactions. 

 Easy to make stable coin pure cash, pass around the wallet signature anchoring the coins. A wallet, a hot, multi-purpose contract manager, wallet holds digital bearer assets of all sorts. That wallet has power of attorney, it is a bot; cannot get more liquid than that and traditional banks don't have them, yet.

Citizen's United?

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - President Donald Trump plans to sign an executive order as soon as Wednesday that will slap sanctions on any foreign companies or people who interfere in U.S. elections, based on intelligence agency findings, two sources familiar with the matter said.

A Ruskie firm doing business in USA has supreme court permission. 

That moment in history

We humans will grant the microprocessor the right to hold its own secret key. Recripocraly, the microprocessor agrees to cancel any operations with a thumb print.  This processor in a card is our contract manager through life, our connection to the singularity. The sentient being almost always delivering goods at the established price, with near zero transaction costs. Accounting and cash merged into ongoing processes in the sentient being.

A contradiction

"In the future, whilst passenger cars will be primarily electric, biofuels are going to be critical for heavier modes of transport such as jets and trucks. The International Energy Agency projects that by 2050, 27 percent of global transport fuels will be biofuels. Meanwhile, large oil companies such as Preem and Total also predict that renewable biofuels will play an important role in the future. In their 'Sky Scenario', Shell expects that biofuels will account for 10 percent of all global end energy-use by the end of the century. That is in line with our research too," he concludes.

Bold face mine.

An otherwise great article on biofuels from the pros, we get this obligatory sop to the electrics.   But they also predict biofuels for transport will be all over the place.  The is grist for the internal combustion and turbo-electric cars, no lithium needed.

The ratios sort of predict 20% of transportation is biofuel, most long haul and air.  At least 20% of the cars should biofuel, but liquid stable fuel is preferred over jet rides by the vast majority of us car owners.