Tuesday, September 18, 2018

Egads the curve

Treasury rates up everywhere, rather suddenly.  Mortgage rate rise, housing dives.  Excess reserves dropping, grabbing the one year instead.  There is another group of stocks needing correcting after the jump.  Government budgets see a sudden 18 billion jump in appropriations, and sooner or later, has to go squeeze it from current priority, shifting programs out.

As Janet says, we can hardly see the paint dry.

 Why the jump in rates?

Hurricanes and EM.  Emerging markets are adjusting, actually, and will on average yield slightly higher rates.  EM has become old news, priced in.

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