Thursday, September 20, 2018

Fear of a second oil spike

Angry Bear reports:
Behavioral economists have shown that people in general react twice as strongly to the fear of a loss vs. the anticipation of an equivalent gain. A good example in the everyday economy is that consumers cut back spending twice as sharply in the face of an oil price spike, as they loosen their spending in the face of a steep decline in gas prices.

Fear of something? A second oil spike was under way due to the stimulus crowding out limited supply.  We can see the price of oil rise again after the recession and it was not until we figured out fracking worked and stimulus crowded out.  And fear of oil shortages is why we cut the stimulus short, however fracking saved the day offering marginal production to offset shortages.

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