Egad!

Minimum real GDP losses a half point. We did it last year, worse, weathered it.

That was then this is now. We have 45 basis points to play with 1-10 slope, the ten year at 2.97%.

Florence is a strong gust on our kicked can, floating toward the goal posts.  Black Swan type stuff, sort of unexpected. And California is firing up the forests again.  Interest charges already expected to jump for the Swamp, well past bound.   Nightmare stuff.