Tuesday, September 18, 2018

For the record

The nearly complete sequence, oil in blue, housing in green and the implicit.  Now building construction, including home is somewhere about 8% of the economy, and of home prices.  Home prices rose too much, but they should have risen.   Housing may have freaked the financial system, but oil jolted us all.

Some notes.  In ex post dating the blue bar, how did they miss the oil jolts?  They didn't. 
The implicit should be NGDP minus real good growth, but they also smooth out the cycles, this is deceiving, the total result is not known. 
Fracking, when oil was around $100, made sense, and stabilized the economy.  For more than a year, mining employment growth lead the charts, and still does in Texas.  Clearly we suffered a major oil shock, hugely increased demand and wartime oil shortages.

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