Looks like crowding out to me

Paul claims cheap debt:

Brad DeLong * is upset about the stuff coming out of Chicago these days — and understandably so. First Eugene Fama, ** now John Cochrane, *** have made the claim that debt-financed government spending necessarily crowds out an equal amount of private spending, even if the economy is depressed 



Let us ask the chart. We have real growth, seasonal and otherwise compared to the government deficit, (yellow line) .  Deficits rise before the blue bars, and the blue nars are happening on presidential regime change.  The most straight forward indication is that each president leaves a ton of legacy debt to the next president, causing periodic cycles.  And we notice that deficits get worse over time, like we never make any kind of multiplier greater than one, mostly bailouts.