Putin losing

Russian Growth, Trading Economics

No sure how well Putin is advised, but the growth rate has dropped dramatically, mainly due to American fracking.  It imp[roved a bit since he took over, but he took over at a dismal period.  he has growth back to low, and bad.

His population growth has recovered, somewhat from the death spiral, but his tax payers are not ready for more costly adventures overseas.  Remember, Russia is smaller, economically, than California.