Wednesday, May 15, 2019

Larry Summers is asking for ideas

I am inclined to prefer more reliance on reasonably managed fiscal policies as a response to secular stagnation: government borrowing at negative real rates and investing seems very attractive in a world where there are many projects with high social returns. Moreover, we are accustomed to thinking in terms of debt levels but it may be more appropriate to think in terms of sustained debt service levels. With near zero rates these are below average in most industrial countries. The content of fiscal policies is crucial. Measures which run up government debt without stimulating demand like large parts of the Trump tax cut are ill advised. In contrast measures which promote investment and raise the tax base down the road are much more attractive.

He wants to make government do more useful things, at the zero interest rate.  Government needs to be shovel ready if he wants r<g, government has to operate at the short end.

All government agencies, Larry, are designed by you, Clinton and Obama to be viable over the ten year span, because of insurance. That insurance, in the form of inflation adjustments, insures government pays the ten year rate.

Your problem, Larry and Brad's problem is they cannot get past the insurance promises and price fixes so they have no way to incentivize Congress into reform.

I have news, Larry.  We are no using dried mud to transact, we have improved the stone age technology. How? How Larry, did we advance banking from mud slats to digital yield curves? We did it generation by generation, taking our losses from the old technology and upgrading. Forget what you learned in the 70s from MIT. Instead, go back and read the chapter headings of Uncle Milt's book.  Those chapter heading indicate time and again when we restructured the central bank because of its inherent cycle.   And the government declares losses in the process.

Do that again, Larry. figure out how to get Congress out of central banking and put the government agencies on cash flow accounting so you can find positive multipliers instead of wandering in ignorance. If we have a well structured Trump Shock then government efficiency expands everywhere.

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