Friday, May 3, 2019

Out generational rebalance is a repricing of the past

Typical today, as most generations, ex post, we can see the mispricing of the past.  Technology had doubled our precision relative to past systems. We learnt from Nixon Shock and FDR shock, and continuing backwards.

So we always have this conundrum, no one is to blame for the mispricing and it has to be defaulted onto all of the fiat users. It is past currency risk that could have been expensed at twice the rate.

So we split costs, default and do it better regaining half the default back into the system. The do it better generally means a better impulse response from the default shock.  We never quite lose the cycle, though.

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