Saturday, June 22, 2019

All the inflation or price rules will cycle

A Revival of Research on Monetary Policy Rules for the Instruments


John Taylor talking about the different policy rules. You cannot target price, it takes a whole generation to get pricing refined. That kind of delay will cause cycles. I would go further, leave time or term out completely.

The best rule is to match the skew in your distributions of loans and deposits. Make them homomorphic, otherwise known as being the market maker. Once the deposit distribution is homomorphic with the loan distribution, the interest charges become a scaled ratio that keeps market making risk minimum.

So, the rule is:
Act as market maker inserting loan and deposit chits in the distribution to make them homomorphic. Scale the interest rate to keep market  mis matches below the bounds.

How did any of the banker theorists ever conclude this was something other than a market making function? There is no time, no prices, just current interest charges applied at the moment across the two homomorphic distributions.

What does John Taylor think of the Right to Con?

Nothing, as far as I can tell, he assumes some brilliant philosopher will eliminate that risk.  But in history says no, history tells us we will have a John Taylor creating cycles each generation until the new generation chucks the mess and exercises the right to coin.  So any Fed rule needs a side bet on when and how the new right to coin rules will arrive.

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