The answer is in the X axis, it maps to one cycle and does not include the long term monetary cycle.
The actual path of the red line follows the right to coin cycle, a repeated system of curve inversions. No one is measuring that because government and economists wee prohibited from looking long term for so long. Now that the complete monetary cycle is observed, everyone is shocked, I tell you, just shocked.
The long term component predicts some 20 years of deflation, it is straight out of the long term trend on the ten year, down as Congress goes broke. The over estimates are traders ignoring the long term, the underestimates later on, are traders pricing the long term.
Analyze this wit the correct monetary event, a MMT moment of rebalance followed by the overlapping of generations moment. Underneath that is the model we use, we are not telling anyone because we were fooled for so long. So I am telling everyone, expect the same, repeated sequence of those two events.
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