Monday, August 3, 2020

Low rates

Interest charges per time are low.
Interest charges asynchronously needed are not low.  Congress is still paying 2.5% on old debt.  Consumers are increasingly locked out of credit. We pay the Fed tax, and investment is nil until we get a perspective on covid.

What is a good covid perspective on covid? Six quarters until we see working cures of some sort. That is a long time with negative deflationary growth. Most of the bankruptcies are happening now so the negative growth should level off to o% or -1%, Q over Q.

So, money is tamed to covid, that means very slow transaction rate, en economy contracted for a year. Then as the partial cures show effects, growth makes the reverse path we just took.

But behind the scenes was our regularly scheduled, but mild, recession anyway. We had already cycled around. Most bets are on the covid timeline. I suppose one could collect a genetic engineering sector, put some index on that into the portfolio. It would dominate the betting since we either lose lose or defeat covid.

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