The recession was already scheduled

There is no multiplier greater than one in this chart, it is mainly the swamp causing cycles.  This is mostly about a blunder in economic theory.

 

This is the ten year rate minus the three month, the curve slope. When that goes negative, we are headed for downturn.  It had been negative long before covid hit.  It will stay mostly flat until covid is no longer a show stopper.  Note that when the curve went negative we had repo madness and the next round of QE had begun, though Powell lied about it.

This is a long recovery, ten years I suspect.  The is a long time to suffer  Fed taxes, but we may get used to it.