When is the next rate cycle?

 The Ten year is at 1.1%. But the Fed collects another half point above that. We are really paying 1.6%. Unaffordable is closer to 2%.  We have a 50 basis point margin.

If the dollar is stable, we can get half way through the year. 

But we have this chart to worry:

The Fed needs to taper soon or foreign bond buyers will continue to exit the market. No one on Biden's team is away of this. Larry Summers gets the problem quite well and has spoken out. It is really up to Yellen, she is tho only one there with any gravitas.

It sound like a Summers,Yellen vs Schumer, Pelosi.  They do not have time to educate the Biden team, the dollar drops another five percent and the rate cycle begins.

So, I predict, likely wrong, that the rate cycle begins in Q2 or late Q1.  I am pretty sure the Biden team will be caught flat footed. Fed members already are debating about Q3 oir Q4, so i cannot be far off. Take Q2 as the target for a new rate cycle.