Monday, September 3, 2018

Italy's bad position

The rate on government ten year increased a point, a 1/3 increase in debt costs. 

The ten year, now at 3.2%, contrasts with a real growth rate of .9%, which seems to be declining.  The government is being hit with default insurance even before it borrows, a no win situation.  Thus German banks, via the ECB, end up setting risk charges, and these charges are likely to go up in hopes of forestalling any more debt increases.

Italy is in de facto negotiations for a bankruptcy outcome, like Greece with a zero real growth rate. Greeks pay a 4.5% rate on the ten year, basically their economy exports debt payments.  Both nations end up with no discretionary spending, their governments become repudiated by citizen's and debt default looms.

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