Tuesday, September 4, 2018

The debt bubble moves around

Total debt is a whopping $169 trillion, up from $97 trillion on the eve of the Great Recession, according to the McKinsey Global Institute.While previous debt crises involved U.S. households and, later, profligate European governments such as Greece, this time the concern centers on companies in emerging markets that borrowed heavily in dollars and euros.In Turkey, for example, companies and banks borrowed in recent years to finance bridges, hospitals, power plants and even a mammoth port development for cruise ships.Foreign investors, particularly European banks, lent freely in search of the higher returns these markets offered at a time when the U.S. Federal Reserve and European Central Bank were keeping interest rates low.“We were supposed to correct a debt bubble,” said David Rosenberg, chief economist at Gluskin Sheff, a wealth-management firm. “What we did instead was create more debt.”Those bills are coming due, and Turkish borrowers, like those in other developing countries, may not have the dollars and euros to pay them back.

The debt bubble is the thing we cannot eliminate.  Central bankers do not understand the theory of money and banking.   

It is the central bank debt bubble that keeps bitcoin in the 7,000 dollar range.  As long as government and central banks keep pushing on the bubble, bitcoin will remain a temporary safe haven.  At the moment, bitcoin is more stable than EM currencies.

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