Saturday, September 1, 2018

Three or four emerging markets are in contraction

Argentina, Turkey, South Africa, and maybe Brazil.

Mostly the term structure of their creditors is imposing on the term structure of the domestic economy, debt payments are pressing and ill-timed.  Call this a spectral mismatch, and the domestic economies will tend to fit themselves into the creditor markets, superimpose their exports.  A requant in EM is under way.

Spectral mismatch means trade space is not used efficiently, fewer 'full' markets to track sentiment.  Trade space is packed optimally when agents get algebraic, they find the complete sequence, and operate with a matching generator, fitting themselves in.  This is back to the two peak theory, agent see two price peaks in oil, for example.  Agents then know the complete sequence, the event series over which everything unfolds.  That knowledge, the deja vu  effect, when folks see the Shannon bandwidth limited solution.

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