The optional covd bet

 We are all reading the research reports on covid preventatives, and getting estimates from the participants.

The question is:  When will we get a couple of reasonable preventives from the labs? We need something that knocks R down by a half.  The numbers I see are three to six quarters.  This means you will pay an interest charge to stay long the labs for six quarters.  

You get six coin tosses, The probability of getting a half reduction in R is about 1/6.  What is the net interest charge for each quarter needed to convert this into a fair con toss and center the odds with the best approximation to a bell curve.  This is Black Shoales, plain and simple.  

But instead of working with the integral I am working with the deviations of the Riemann sums.  Basically, I am rounding off up from the solution I would have if I bet every month. I am dropping 3/4 of the coin tosses because other elements in the portfolio already are above that noise level.   But I round off up and select the digit system together, this is -iLog(i). And I round off upwards, I only carry the finite set of deviations, as a revolving continued fraction.  Then i can meet Ito's calculus and do time based velocity measures on a line of Walmart customers, within a bounded error.  

So I am picking six bets, one per quarter.  In fact, it is a 2 by 3 isn't it? What does that mean?  Covid is the only bet in town, I am using my most minimal prime set. We either meet the goals or The Birds win nature's game of evolution.  All the other distributions must balance with the covid bets.

Where is my semi Martingale? My random, one way sequence?  It is the labs. Each lab is making one step, about once per quarter. I know they have to sort their production first by two and second by three. Why? Because they two need to balance the binomial, it provides the best trend toward independent paths in the solution. t each step they combine and regroup.  And I read enough of their stuff, these estimates are based on the steps they do and report.

The pit boss, executes the square integral bounded operation on the labs. Take a fair sequence of labs results, give them cash in advance.  The pit boss will manage the deposits in advance, and the optimal profits apportioned within bounded error. It is the spin operator, always bounded to the unit.  That is the pit boss function, to define the best approximation to unit variance.

One bets a qualified lab in the loan queue, as an unexpected cash withdrawal.  N, the number of trades is is not known to certainty, some drop out, some drop in.. Interest charges happen asynchronously, mostly with a change in N ratio which exceed unit variance. N is really the total trade space, in a Bayesian sense, limited by self sampling in the Boltzmann sense.

If the labs are risk adjusted then they are optimal when they take a slightly independent path, the emphasis on unit variance being slightly. The lab martingale response is to fit into the production pattern and make p closer to 1/2, reducing the interest charge.  The math here all woks, no problem check with the pros. Free entry and exit.  Both investors and labs keep balances at the automated S&L. But free trade lets us make it a restricted set of Labs, for example, and make depositors put up a pretty penny for starter loans. Deviate off the pure cash network concept.