Sunday, August 9, 2020

The optimal covid bettor, continued

 From my last post, the automated banker for covid labs.


What are the extreme failure modes?


We deploy the code, all the big betters jump in. Now we don't care about skull duggery outside the pits. So the pit is running, quarter one the bets placed, quarter two the bets placed and suddenly one of the labs had a proven break through! The pit boss, stunned, the code burps and shuts. You are two quarters into a six month bet, the losses are not that great. The more probable outcome, taking into account agglomeration, is that there optimum recombining of results, and specialization of production per quarter.  

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