Can kick review from Larry

Perhaps the U.S. economy will enjoy a soft landing: Jobs growth would slow toward long-run sustainable levels, and productivity growth would accelerate enough to allow continued gross domestic product growth of 2 percent and increased wage growth without accelerating inflation. But this would require both policy skill and great luck. Given that we are starting from very high debt levels and low unemployment, a recession is the more likely outcome.

I am a believer, we can sneak thru, barely on target, just ahead of the recession daters. 

Except, at some point we won't be able to hold up Illinois, we have to have a bit i liquidity to stay that one step ahead. And we may go full Calizuela out here, never know with this bunch.

Guv to cyclical says Brad:

Three of the last four US recessions stemmed from unforeseen shocks in financial markets. Most likely, the next downturn will be no different: the revelation of some underlying weakness will trigger a retrenchment of investment, and the government will fail to pursue counter-cyclical fiscal policy.

If we could move the recession up, to match the Trump sugar, then we get an accidentally counter cyclical gov, except for California, and likely Illinois who will be contrarian relative to Texas and Florida.  New Yawk gonna flounder a bit, but they keep the maple syrup trade.

Seriously, if we could just bump along at a 1.8% growth rate, be slightly deflationary for 20 years, then that is a dead enter can kick. We would get mom and dad through a middle class retirement, maybe have a couple of kids.