JPM has cut US GDP projection for Q1 from 2.25% to 2.0% due to impact of ongoing shutdown of fed govt. Each week govt is shut down subtracts 0.1-0.2% from quarterly GDP growth. Since output of govt sector not priced & sold in mkt, it has to be inferred by number of hours worked.
My counter party at the IRS is not working, my meeting on back taxes delayed, thus I am fee to write open software. I just dropped the next version of symbol table onto the file list. A net positive for the economy, yet uncounted.
Data I have seen shows the economy improves when DC is in stalemate. In the past, under Clinton and Obama, budget shutdowns eventually lead to a more balanced budget and longer term expansions.
The predictions on the will be made of hysterics and one sided counting.
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