Thursday, August 13, 2020

How is the CPI doing?


Abut the same as oil prices.

Inflation is not the concern.  Oil prices are at the 2004 level before the big oil shock.  We still have a bunch of energy deflation to work through. 

And the covid stop has killed off the shale industry so we have that huge bubble popped, and those workers are unemployed. So, do not worry about inflation, we will not see much of it for some time.

And our inflation scare added a few basis points to the curve:

And the higher yield will soon force the Fed to raise the fed taxes and our deflation resumes. Get used to it.

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