Saturday, April 11, 2020

Our unconscious is quite a practical economist

It is the consciousness engaging in frivolity that fouls the thinking, but underneath it works just fine. Freud would say the illusions we carry are about natural instincts in conflict with the congestion of urban life.  The science of economics cannot be difficult if we do it without thinking.  I guess the trick is to try not thinking now and then, take a month off with Luddite fever helps me.

We need a college department, the department of public illusions to study the phenom. I think Redneck U is the perfect place.  Why to folks project their father myths onto economics?
The bots can talk to our unconscious, Morse code through those clicky things.

Corona cures?

The larger the N the better the treatment.  More information and goods flow. The information is mostly about immune system overreaction, the corona killer. The docs know how to handle that, they need to gear up.

I thought the hospital were right to call for shutdown, they were essentially swamped. I think a hesitant government does not bother me. Everyone gets a C, this was and is a black swan.

What about the symptom? It is an immune system gone wild and 15% of us have the condition, a mutation which hinders the battle with corona.  Unable to kill the thing, they keep producing macrophage and your body is eaten. Docs can detect it and treat it. The normal treatment for inflammation (allergy really) is for rheumatoid arthritis, and that seems to help. A lot like suppressing an allergy. But it will take weeks to put all the right medicines together, and proper doasage and get exact testing of the condition.

How serious was the crisis? The hospital shutdown was serious and necessary, essentially a declaration of bankruptcy, it happens.  The rest depends on how soon and well we can treat this macrophage activation syndrome treated on a wide scale. I dunno, it may be a few weeks a month and we be past our peak anyway, I am not in the business, so beyond the hospital shutdown I cannot evaluate the different results from different places, just yet. It is still black.

But I know that a one quarter sudden stop was widely expected anyway, and was considered a mild downturn. The continuing patter said a humongous deficit, but I was never going to predict a huge downturn, too much for me. I was generally lying about my priors and hoping for a mild bump or two. I was predicting the long term slow deflation, then some kind of  monetary regime change.

The virus is the common cold family, as near as I can see in the reports, and damage from common cold is reparable.  This is becoming a solvable problem, I can guess we have a handle on it in June. But I doubt it.

Immunity is mostly going to be seasonal, but some of us may get it twice a year. But like any allergy, those susceptible will know it, and get special treatment right away.

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