The model projects California will see fewer deaths than New York, despite having twice as many people living in the state. That gives California a much lower death rate relative to its number of residents.
No basis in fact. The curve flattening does not predict fewer deaths per capita, it predicts a slower rte of spread. The model predicts eradication of the virus, but that is highly unlikely at this time.
NPR s reporting and their reporter seems clueless and does not explain the redefinition of flattening. Thus, the error is confusing Kevin Drum and his priors.
Something is missing and it is causing the priors crowd to mis-interpret and confuse folks. The author of the news report should have explained the error but failed to get a clue.
The correct answer is that we will lay whack a mole, and the virus will show up sparsely in sparse neighborhoods from now on, like the common cold which has the same virus family. But under most assumptions, the long term per capita rate remains the same everywhere.
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