Tuesday, April 14, 2020

There is no return path


Head of Fed trading desk says:
Logan than explain why the Fed decided it was in America's best interest to nationalize the capital markets, saying that "supporting smooth market functioning does not mean restoring every aspect of market functioning to its level before the coronavirus crisis. Some aspects of liquidity—especially aspects related to transactions costs and market depth—are importantly affected by fundamental factors such as how the current extraordinary uncertainty about the economic outlook influences trading behavior. These aspects of market functioning may not return all the way to pre-crisis levels for some time, even as our purchases slow."

The implication is a meeting of the elders to reconstruct market. But that cannot be done with the balance sheet in its current shape. It took the Fed nearly eight years to try to find the way back last time, they failed.

It is meeting of the elders for the new Fed contract.  No priors allows, that is Congress. No Godots allowed since the meeting of the elders is the best Godot we can scrape up in a rush.

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