Monday, January 27, 2020

Too late but never mind

Restoring Fiscal Order in the United States

John Taylor trying a little string pushing. He wants to gradually lower the level of the Federal budget. He wants to pay of the losses from 40 years ago:



Look at the ten year. we suffer debt deflation. We already have decided not to pay off those losses of the past, we voters are not responsible and plan on defaulting.

The structural reform John wants is too deep for him to contemplate.  The likely scenario will be a disruptive default, like the Nixon Shock, I am afraid.  We simply have a problem: ignorant senators running the government into bankruptcy on a regular generational basis.

Our real interest rate, interest charges divided by total debt (including SS),  is 2.25%. But the growth rate is settling down to slightly below 2%. It is a losing proposition, we already are bankrupt. There is no reverse path, we are unable to look backwards and identify the losses needing to be written off.

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