Wednesday, April 1, 2020

Another 15% spread rate

Sacramento County coronavirus cases have now doubled in 5 days. Another death reported


A number becoming consistent, in my view. 1.15^5 = 2.01.  At his point the lockdowns, at best, will delay phase three, but we are all mostly past the occasional traveler stage.

A spread sheet which reduces the 15% by ratio of percent immune still shows we reach equilibrium in two weeks of phase two.  That is like two weeks ago for NYC. if we mark the start of eruption at Mar 3, the first major spreader. This predicts a high number of immune already, maybe 30%.

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