Thursday, January 2, 2020

Central banking with a default stream

Mt MMT plan has the independent Fed defaulting on some 2% of GDP per year for 15 years.  That is a big jump up the Markov Tree.

The ten year will hold around 4.5% for six of those years as we learn the system.  But the key is that government programs have free entry into the Fed system, and bankers offer individual cash mnagement. A lot of those interest charges are captured by programs.

But, it is is closed. all streams mostly trapped. Endogeneously all agents gain by forcing stability in the default stream, it is on the books for all players. That is the variable the senators watch, ten year rates, in this case the default performance predicts a potential renewal of the contract. Government programs are not restricted to external debt management, each program can seek its own banking services. If the senators watch this process, that default stream gets buried around year six. That becomes pure liquidity, the senator can give their state capitals half.

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