We have to wait a little while for the detailed Q4 services data to emerge, but at this point, there are no indications that there was a sharp deterioration in Q4.
But with manufacturing deteriorating at this pace, and based on the historical relationship between manufacturing and the rest of the economy, the ISM Report estimates that the December manufacturing index value corresponds to a 1.3% increase in real GDP in December on an annualized basis, which would be a lot slower growth than the range between 2.5% and 2.1% over the past four quarters.
This might not show in the first revision, but it means spending time in the doldrums. The curve has gone flat again.
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