Tuesday, April 30, 2019

Economists can no longer confuse us

We have discovered that confusion is natural, and we can price it as we go, spread the confusion risk. No more 'Deterministic calculation of the natural rate'.   Instead, we spread the confusion about current interest charges, spread it fairly when we observe it.

So, our MMT moment is quite fair, we are dispersing the past currency confusion over the economy fairly. Currency errors are real, necessary part of the market making function applied to currency.  Central banking 'right to coin'  transfers the currency errors to government insurance programs, and no one is at fault, or we are all at default.

The issues is not resolved, instead the different MMT.  This time is a lucrative 15 year contract with Congress, we make it profitable to disperse currency errors more on schedule and gain endogenous accounting efficiency. But the key here is for all te tribes to get a opening p[rice, MMT needs to have a representative sample, it needs everyone's defuault number for Congress over 15 years.

This part, doing a different MMT, is also standard, the normal technology upgrade we attempt on a generation basis. There are no miracles, we just got an objective view from the mathematicians.  All parties can still advocate for insurance in Congress, but Congress has a lucrative, 15 year contract with the Fed, and that makes a big difference, it yields cash flow accounting across large programs.

In terms of commutativity the initial bids, the chosen 15 year gift to Congress, is enough commutativity to 'fractionalize' a good 15 year estimate. We are setting a basket size for the 15 year term,  dealing with a constitutional restriction.  That will move large government programs to a 6 year liquidity position, twice the sample rate.  large programs will hedge the monetary release, hedge the contract renewal; and all that hedging is nothing but a better fractional estimate of six year budget cycle. More liquid, operates shorter on the treasury curve, get better rates, multipliers all around. Good stuff, wide consensus, agree it is a fair deal on a lousy constitution.

Right to coin is a hard rock bound, cannot bump up against it.  Einstein would have us add a term to our forces, a rem that forces a warning hill around the bound so all parties in the hologram do not cross the right to coin.  This is equivalent to the government never goes broke doctrine of central banking.  We are simply adding that term, and it works because we all can compute, 'Oh yes, let/s at least do it better'. The observable arbitrage causes a representative sample to attend MMT meeting with a 15 year price. The negotiated price almost certainty better than no deal. We are doing the natural thing all agents everywhere do, observably avoid long lines.

Reading estimates

If I read between the lines of all the tribes who have some distorted recognition of accumulated 'right to coin' error, and listed the estimates, I get numbers between 2  and 12 T over 15 years as the fair Congressional default.  If this contract promises renewable 15 year government accounting stability, then there are people of all walks of life who find that a promise to avoid very long friggen government lines. It will pass, overwhelmingly.  Get your estimate in the hopper, time is short! This is going to be the greatest MMT in Ameircan history, except the future.

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