How is the herd doing?

Here is Soros on the subject:

Financial markets, far from accurately reflecting all the available knowledge, always provide a distorted view of reality. This is the principle of fallibility. The degree of distortion may vary from time to time. Sometimes it’s quite insignificant, at other times it is quite pronounced.
Every bubble has two components: an underlying trend that prevails in reality and a misconception relating to that trend. When a positive feedback develops between the trend and the misconception, a boom-bust process is set in motion. The process is liable to be tested by negative feedback along the way, and if it is strong enough to survive these tests, both the trend and the misconception will be reinforced.

Soros has an algebra of the crowd. I have some details.

The first reflex is Deja Vu, that point the crowd recognizes a supply and demand with a variance observably less than 1% sigma*.  That causes a partial equilibrium, and leads to 'been there done that' in which agents have learned to exchange internal inventory to accommodate the spectral match, it is hedged and endogenous. it is our Hamiltonian.  We can self measure it now.

And that, George, is how you construct your algebra, I get your reflexes in my spreadsheet.

* I mix one percent and one sigma by accident for the simple reason that our price variation is about 3%, max, and have a tendency to divide by three.