Thursday, April 25, 2019

Professor's answer to the test

The test for central banker candidates, what is the NPV for the 'Right to coin'.

I computed the imbalance over the generation to be 8 trillion, since the bankruptcy was 'declared' by zero crossing in 2009. The amount circulating as bloated debt as we can kicked the generation accounts.

But that always, or mostly, comes with technology advance after the new central banking contract, returning half the imbalance in productivity gains, net 4 trillion loss.  All of this is calculated over a 15 year interval. The cost is a net loss of coinage by the central banker at a about 1% per year, at equilibrium, when the contract is up for renewal.

On a renewal basis, Congress is simply defining its constant, real inflation rate over the new contract period.  In 15 years, Congress can charge another 4 trillion, and there is another wave of tech that will wash it with productivity. Good news for millennials, take this proposal with you to the meeting of the elders, coming soon, the best deal for all.

How do millennials gain from productivity?

The main point is major programs keep their own S/L account. They are twice as accuraely measured, is a good model.  You monthly bills for taking care of mom and dad will gain from inventory smoothness.  We will be able o easily separate the pharmacy bills out, and better math term and rates. Millennials need this deal, right now, oday, they should think that government interest term/rate is dropping, from ten at 2.53 to something like five at 1.5,  shortly after contract.  But there will be periods of volatility, collisions as the opportunistic defaults drop out.  It is OK, Congress will have a lot more discretion to adjust accounts more rapidly.  Defense cost benefit and inventory control much better managed u the cash flow system. All, leaving a very good future for the millennials, the AOC crowd.

How is this fair?

The vast majority opinion is, yes, central banking is difficult, sparse and stuck by constitution.  There will be known bias, and given our sparsity, it is recovered on longer term intervals. Ex post, the Swamp has been in mostly bailout since 2009,the  can kick.  That is a universal tax on central bank money and dispersed as such fairly by defaults, without the impulse needed. We still have 2.1 generations, and mostly the one is responsible for stalling the productivity improvements. All parties better off if we price it now, get the productivity sooner.

Inflation adjustments

The problem here is that we have planned contractually computed inflation, a known Wiener process.  Putting a government  program on a planned raise may or may not work, so experiment.  Most programs are price in and out, they would rather play the S/L.  We are not making it to nearly zero inflation until maybe trial number three, we will need a 'been their done that'.  Still, half the volatility of Nixon, easily.

No comments: