That blue line is young male employment ratio, it signals a downturn. That employment ratio drops coincident with a jump in unemployment, the yellow.
That blue line has likely turned a corner, as we see at the very end. A moderate probability that this is variance. The turn seems dominate.
The longer term likelihood shows a generation record for unemployment jump because we discover something interesting. The greater percentage employed, the great the sudden bad news on employment jumping. A large jump from 3.8% is not a catastrophe, but it will be sudden, one quarter crash will get us to 6.5% unemployment, doable; not a disaster, but a mild blue bar.
A quick, two quarter blue and we can emerge and adjust the can kick. This portends an attempt at 15 year sequester, the Swamp will see this might be a mild recession and choose another can adjustment over the MMT moment. So can kick adjustment and MMT next cycle. We may not make the next cycle, if the tax and sequester fails then we risk the overnight discovery of an MMT contract. Watch for that and keep the proper outcome in mind.
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