Wednesday, April 24, 2019

Shifting benchmarks

An extremely modest rise in 30-year mortgage rates has prompted a sudden collapse in mortgage applications for refinancings.Overall, mortgage applications tumbled 7.3% last week and are down over 15% in the last three weeks - the worst drop since January 2016

The ten year may no longer be the benchmark, more likely the fifteen year is implied.  15 years is the estimated tax and sequester period needed to Euler our way through. For the first time, in a long time, government may be forced onto a fifteen year budget plan and that is resetting the mortgage risk.

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