Monday, April 6, 2020

It is PSST in NYC

The key moment in attacking the virus was to realize where the fast spreaders were, and that is when the ER rooms called a halt, they were a fast spreader.  Thus, NYC cops and docs found the specialized spreaders and put in controls to make them sustainable.

And, like I say, the effect is to turn the virus arrivals into a queuing response with very low arrival virus rates vs the very high arrival rates of immunity and controls. The virus finds it very difficult to over run the queue and we seldom see two adjacent neighborhoods take a new virus hit at the same time.

Arnold Kling ran a model which shows that NYC will hit a boundary condition if the death rate continue at its same rate. What happens at a boundary condition?  The virus sloshes back, the docs in ER notice a resurgence and send in the controls. They control the spectrum via deja vu in the ER. AT some point the arrivals are all equally surprising, there is no deja vu the boundary conditions are satisfied.

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