At the curve peak, antibodies become significant which is why the curve slopes back down. If 40% of your population in immune then social distancing can be relaxed, in NYC. I would still bar travelers from the place, for their own safety.
“I think if we get to the part of the curve that Dr. Birx showed yesterday when it goes down to essentially no new cases, no new deaths at a period of time. I think it makes sense that you will have to relax social distancing,” Fauci said.
In the case of Italy, as soon as they know the case cluster is past the peak, then hey will never see case rate increase. They know, as certain as they know the immune time.
In the case of New York, their cases rate will drop very soon, but myguess would have a week of range, but soon. New York has to have had wide spreading.
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